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Survival of the Fittest: Update

Back in May, I made predictions on how I expected the new shows to do in the coming season, just after their initial pickups. As we come into premiere month, here’s a recap of my predictions for the season, first posted at the end of May. As the shows premiere and air, I’ll add some updates to this to tell you how my prediction is tracking…

ABC (American Broadcast Network)

Better With You (fka ‘Better Together’)
How It’s Doing: Two episodes in, the show’s doing solid ratings. A little soft, but it didn’t drop too much in its second week, which is heartening. Maybe I was wrong, though the history of shows in this arena is against it.
My Prediction: 7 and out, though I’ll likely be sad to see it go.

Body of Proof
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: Survival for 2-3 years.

Detroit 1-8-7
How It’s Doing: Exactly what I expected, middling but down from ABC’s cancelled The Forgotten. Lets see if it can bulk up a little and survive the fall.
My Prediction: Cancelled in front 13.

Happy Endings
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: Order will get cut to 6 episodes before it airs and it will be burned off in the Wednesday block. No season 2.

Mr. Sunshine
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: Will get a season 2, even if just barely.

My Generation
How It’s Doing: I was generous: It lasted two. Still marking this as a win.
My Prediction: Thirteen and out.

No Ordinary Family
How It’s Doing: ABC’s number-one new show, exactly as I expected. We haven’t seen ratings for week two, however, and things could still go horribly wrong.
My Prediction: 3-5 seasons.

Off the Map
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: I expect the show to see a second season; where it goes beyond that depends on whether the show can create compelling stories, as Rhimes’ first show did early on.

The Whole Truth
How It’s Doing: As predicted. I could be kind and refrain from saying The Whole Truth bombed, but the truth is, it’s down 50% from where Eastwick was last year. Goner.
My Prediction: Six episodes is being generous.

CBS (Columbia Broadcasting System)

Bleep My Dad Says
How It’s Doing: A couple weeks in, seems to be doing pretty well – despite horrible reviews. Should be interesting to see what happens.
My Prediction: Unless they completely fumble this opportunity, at least 3 seasons.

Blue Bloods
How It’s Doing: In my favour: The ratings have all but secured a back nine. Not in my favour: If they don’t drop, it will indeed last beyond that.
My Prediction: Will get a back nine, but not reach season 2.

The Defenders
How It’s Doing: Reports say that the ratings for the show are solid. If they hold up, it will be right in line with my predictions.
My Prediction: Two seasons.

Hawaii Five-O
How It’s Doing: The show wasn’t the megahit the networks were hoping for, doing solidly and winning the hour. Not so big a hit that my prediction was wildly low, but just high enough for it to make sense. I think, unless the show bombs in coming weeks, my prediction here is looking good.
My Prediction: 2-3 seasons.

Mike & Molly
How It’s Doing: The show had impressive retention from fellow Chuck Lorre show Two and a Half Men, and the usual drop in the second week was miniscule. I’m betting, just like with The Big Bang Theory before it, we’ll see Mike & Molly grow over the next few seasons – and yes, I believe we’ll be seeing a few.
My Prediction: I’m betting 3-6 seasons, right now; this is the beginning of a new How I Met Your Mother / The Big Bang Theory situation, I think.

Criminal Minds 2.0
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: It’ll make three seasons, almost definitely.

The CW


Hellcats
How It’s Doing: The show seems to be performing at a pretty consistent level, just riding the line of success and failure for The CW. Too close to call, but I’m seeing a back nine pickup coming down the line.
My Prediction: Dawn Ostroff’s pride will require they order a back nine, but this will not see a second season.

Nikita
How It’s Doing: Seems to be doing pretty well (by CW standards) for such a competitive night. Should continue to survive through the season.
My Prediction: Season 2. Beyond that, I don’t know. It might skew male and end up buried at 3pm Saturdays, knowing Ostroff’s record.

FOX

Bob’s Burgers
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: 6 eps and out.

Lonestar
How It’s Doing: Lasted two episodes. My prediction was optimistic to say the least.
My Prediction: 3 seasons and out.

Mixed Signals
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: Order cut to 7 or 8 and no season 2.

Raising Hope
How It’s Doing: Solid ratings. I expect it to perform solidly for a few years, much like predecessor My Name is Earl. The only worry is that its retention out of Glee was pretty poor, so it remains to be seen whether that hurts the show’s chances.
My Prediction: 2-4 seasons.

Ridealong
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: 2 seasons.

Running Wilde
How It’s Doing: It did decently, dropping a little from Raising Hope. Just enough to mean a back nine is within reach, but too early to tell whether my end-of-season cancellation prediction is on the money.
My Prediction: Back nine, no season 2.

Terra Nova
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: No season 2.


NBC (National Broadcasting Company)

The Cape
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: Probably one season and out.

Chase
How It’s Doing: I expected the show to do badly, but it’s even underperformed timeslot ancestor My Own Worst Enemy. I still think we’ll get a back nine with no season season order.
My Prediction: Back nine, yes; second season, no.

The Event
How It’s Doing: A strong premiere, but fell 19% in its second week, which is perilous at best. Very likely Flashforward 2.0.
My Prediction: No season 2.

Friends With Benefits
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: If it makes it to air, 5 episodes.

Harry’s Law
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: 3-4 seasons.

Law and Order: Los Angeles
How It’s Doing: Opened solidly. The future’s bright.
My Prediction: The show will, at worst, limp through 2-3 seasons, unless its ratings are a complete trainwreck.

Love Bites
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: No season 2, sadly.

Outlaw
How It’s Doing: Now its started on Fridays, and the number is just riding the line. It has a few weeks to prove me wrong, but either way, its not escaping the season alive.
My Prediction: No back nine.

Outsourced
How It’s Doing: Premiered decently, but had a pretty big fall in week two. I may have been generous here.
My Prediction: Will see season 2. After that, I have no idea.

The Paul Reiser Show
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: 1 season, if it surfaces on air at all.

Perfect Couples
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: 4 episodes max.

Undercovers
How It’s Doing: I was generous. The show is probably 2-3 weeks from cancellation.
My Prediction: Multiple seasons.

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