Survival of the Fittest: Update II

Back in May, I made predictions on how I expected the new shows to do in the coming season, just after their initial pickups. As we come into premiere month, here’s a recap of my predictions for the season, first posted at the end of May. As the shows premiere and air, I’ll add some updates to this to tell you how my prediction is tracking…

LAST EDITED: October 25, 2010.

ABC (American Broadcast Network)

Better With You (fka ‘Better Together’)
How It’s Doing: I was dead wrong, at least in the show going out before its thirteen aired. It’s gotten its back nine.
My Prediction: 7 and out, though I’ll likely be sad to see it go.

Body of Proof
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: Survival for 2-3 years.

Detroit 1-8-7
How It’s Doing: The show got a semi-pickup for five additional episodes. Enough to prove me wrong for the back nine, but I still expect this show won’t see season two.
My Prediction: Cancelled in front 13.

Happy Endings
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: Order will get cut to 6 episodes before it airs and it will be burned off in the Wednesday block. No season 2.

Mr. Sunshine
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: Will get a season 2, even if just barely.

My Generation
How It’s Doing: I was generous: It lasted two. Still marking this as a win.
My Prediction: Thirteen and out.

No Ordinary Family
How It’s Doing: ABC’s most successful new show, and has gotten its back nine, but has been dropping every week. Not certain about its multi-season fate unless the show stabilizes, and soon.
My Prediction: 3-5 seasons.

Off the Map
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: I expect the show to see a second season; where it goes beyond that depends on whether the show can create compelling stories, as Rhimes’ first show did early on.

The Whole Truth
How It’s Doing: The show is dead after four.
My Prediction: Six episodes is being generous.

CBS (Columbia Broadcasting System)

Bleep My Dad Says
How It’s Doing: Alongside CBS’ other newbies, one of the season’s strongest new shows. It’s already gotten the back nine; if it stays at these levels or rises, I feel strongly that it will survive a while.
My Prediction: Unless they completely fumble this opportunity, at least 3 seasons.

Blue Bloods
How It’s Doing: The ratings have scored the show a back nine, as predicted. However, considering CBS tends to be pretty trigger-happy at end-of-season, they may decide the show’s ‘good-for-Friday’ ratings may not cut it.
My Prediction: Will get a back nine, but not reach season 2.

The Defenders
How It’s Doing: The show has indeed gotten its back nine, but the ratings are just borderline. I think that the axe may fall on this show, as CBS is strong enough to cancel ‘okay’ rated shows, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets a second chance to prove itself next season/
My Prediction: Two seasons.

Hawaii Five-O
How It’s Doing: A solid hit with the back nine order under its belt. Feeling confident about this one.
My Prediction: 2-3 seasons.

Mike & Molly
How It’s Doing: Back nine, very good ratings, and from Chuck Lorre. This one’s a winner.
My Prediction: I’m betting 3-6 seasons, right now; this is the beginning of a new How I Met Your Mother / The Big Bang Theory situation, I think.

Criminal Minds 2.0
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: It’ll make three seasons, almost definitely.

The CW

How It’s Doing: Solid ratings and has earned a back nine. Considering The CW’s scripted woes, they may very well renew this for season two; I expected this to be this season’s Melrose Place, but it seems instead that sophomore show Life Unexpected has slipped into that slot.
My Prediction: Dawn Ostroff’s pride will require they order a back nine, but this will not see a second season.

How It’s Doing: Solid, with a back nine order. Likely good for season 2.
My Prediction: Season 2. Beyond that, I don’t know. It might skew male and end up buried at 3pm Saturdays, knowing Ostroff’s record.


Bob’s Burgers
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled, but received an extra script order for six. This could be a sign that Fox is confident in the show; that said, it’s also a cheaper way to keep the show’s production momentum going (in case its a hit) than straight-out ordering episodes, so I’m not sure it means the show will see all of the front 13 air.
My Prediction: 6 eps and out.

How It’s Doing: Lasted two episodes. My prediction was optimistic to say the least. However, Kyle Killen is shopping the 6 produced episodes to cable networks, and as every critic who praised it compared it to cable material, there may be a shot there.
My Prediction: 3 seasons and out.

Mixed Signals
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: Order cut to 7 or 8 and no season 2.

Raising Hope
How It’s Doing: Solid ratings, and it got the first back nine order of the season. I expect it’ll be a solid performer for a few years to come.
My Prediction: 2-4 seasons.

How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: 2 seasons.

Running Wilde
How It’s Doing: It looking like a back nine order was optimistic.
My Prediction: Back nine, no season 2.

Terra Nova
How It’s Doing: Will be getting the Glee treatment: a pilot this spring, then a full launch in Fall 2011. Not really a 2010/2011 show any more.
My Prediction: No season 2.

NBC (National Broadcasting Company)

The Cape
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: Probably one season and out.

How It’s Doing: The show got a back nine order only because NBC is collapsing before our eyes. I was right on the money with this one, it seems.
My Prediction: Back nine, yes; second season, no.

The Event
How It’s Doing: A back nine has been ordered, but its ratings have yet to stabilise in a strong position. I expect we’ll be seeing a cancellation notice in May.
My Prediction: No season 2.

Friends With Benefits
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: If it makes it to air, 5 episodes.

Harry’s Law
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: 3-4 seasons.

Law and Order: Los Angeles
How It’s Doing: Opened solidly, with shaky ratings. It got its back nine, though, so it has a chance to prove itself.
My Prediction: The show will, at worst, limp through 2-3 seasons, unless its ratings are a complete trainwreck.

Love Bites
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: No season 2, sadly.

How It’s Doing: No back nine, dead. Right on the money.
My Prediction: No back nine.

How It’s Doing: Got its back nine, and is doing decently enough that a second season isn’t impossible – especially on the faltering NBC.
My Prediction: Will see season 2. After that, I have no idea.

The Paul Reiser Show
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: 1 season, if it surfaces on air at all.

Perfect Couples
How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.
My Prediction: 4 episodes max.

How It’s Doing: Though the ratings are pretty disappointing, they are for NBC across the board too. I expect I was wrong and we won’t see season 2, but the show did receive an order for 4 more scripts (though, not episodes).
My Prediction: Multiple seasons.

So, how am I doing? Pretty accurately, I’d have to say. I was dead wrong about Lone Star and Undercovers, and Better With You and Detroit 1-8-7 got additional episodes I didn’t expect, but those seems to be the only real misfires. No Ordinary Family, The Defenders, and Hellcats are the biggest threats to my predictions now; all are on the line of either outperforming or underperforming my predictions, and we’ll have to see how the game plays out.

Any thoughts, folks?

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