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SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST: Update III

Back in May, I made predictions on how I expected the new shows to do in the coming season, just after their initial pickups. As we come into premiere month, here’s a recap of my predictions for the season, first posted at the end of May. As the shows premiere and air, I’ll add some updates to this to tell you how my prediction is tracking…

LAST EDITED: January 27, 2011

ABC (American Broadcast Network)

Better With You (fka ‘Better Together’)

How It’s Doing: Much better than predicted. The show got its back nine, and is on the bubble for a second season. Shocking, I know, but I’m happy to see the success.

My Prediction: 7 and out, though I’ll likely be sad to see it go.

Body of Proof

How It’s Doing: Due to premiere March 29.

My Prediction: Survival for 2-3 years.

Detroit 1-8-7

How It’s Doing:  18 episodes, 5 more than predicted, but almost definitely won’t see season 2.

My Prediction: Cancelled in front 13.

Happy Endings

How It’s Doing: Scheduled for an April premiere. If that doesn’t say ‘death’, nothing will.

My Prediction: Order will get cut to 6 episodes before it airs and it will be burned off in the Wednesday block. No season 2.

Mr. Sunshine

How It’s Doing: To premiere February 9.

My Prediction: Will get a season 2, even if just barely.

My Generation

How It’s Doing: I was generous: It lasted two. Still marking this as a win.

My Prediction: Thirteen and out.

No Ordinary Family

How It’s Doing: Was ABC’s most successful show, and my predictions were right in line with early ratings. However, the show’s ratings plummeted and its looking likely no not make it to two seasons.

My Prediction: 3-5 seasons.

Off the Map

How It’s Doing: Firmly on the bubble after three episodes. We’ll see what happens.

My Prediction: I expect the show to see a second season; where it goes beyond that depends on whether the show can create compelling stories, as Rhimes’ first show did early on.

The Whole Truth

How It’s Doing: The show is dead after four.

My Prediction: Six episodes is being generous.

CBS (Columbia Broadcasting System)

Bleep My Dad Says

How It’s Doing: Alongside CBS’ other newbies, one of the season’s strongest new shows. It’s already gotten the back nine; if it stays at these levels or rises, I feel strongly that it will survive a while.

My Prediction: Unless they completely fumble this opportunity, at least 3 seasons.

Blue Bloods

How It’s Doing: The ratings have scored the show a back nine, as predicted. However, the ratings have also begun to sour, making a second season possible, not not overwhelmingly likely.

My Prediction: Will get a back nine, but not reach season 2.

The Defenders

How It’s Doing: The show has indeed gotten its back nine, but the ratings are just borderline. I think that the axe may fall on this show, as CBS is strong enough to cancel ‘okay’ rated shows, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets a second chance to prove itself next season.

My Prediction: Two seasons.

Hawaii Five-O

How It’s Doing: A solid hit with the back nine order under its belt. Feeling confident about this one.

My Prediction: 2-3 seasons.

Mike & Molly

How It’s Doing: Back nine, very good ratings, and from Chuck Lorre. This one’s a winner.

My Prediction: I’m betting 3-6 seasons, right now; this is the beginning of a new How I Met Your Mother / The Big Bang Theory situation, I think.

Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior

How It’s Doing: Due to premiere February 16.

My Prediction: It’ll make three seasons, almost definitely.

Chaos

How it’s Doing: To premiere April 1.

My Prediction: Announcement of pickup was made after I made my predictions. As of now… not good. End-of-season premiere dates are never a good sign.

The CW

Hellcats

How It’s Doing: Solid ratings and has earned a back nine. Considering The CW’s scripted woes, they may very well renew this for season two; I expected this to be this season’s Melrose Place, but it seems instead that sophomore show Life Unexpected has slipped into that slot.

My Prediction: Dawn Ostroff’s pride will require they order a back nine, but this will not see a second season.

Nikita

How It’s Doing: Solid, with a back nine order. Likely good for season 2.

My Prediction: Season 2. Beyond that, I don’t know. It might skew male and end up buried at 3pm Saturdays, knowing Ostroff’s record.

FOX

Bob’s Burgers

How It’s Doing:  I was dead wrong here. Not a hit, but a solid performer, and much better than I expected.

My Prediction: 6 eps and out.

Lonestar

How It’s Doing: Lasted two episodes. My prediction was optimistic to say the least.

My Prediction: 3 seasons and out.

Mixed Signals

How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.

My Prediction: Order cut to 7 or 8 and no season 2.

Raising Hope

How It’s Doing: Solid ratings, and it got the first back nine order of the season. I expect it’ll be a solid performer for a few years to come.

My Prediction: 2-4 seasons.

The Chicago Code (fka ‘Ridealong’)

How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.

My Prediction: 2 seasons.

Running Wilde

How It’s Doing: It looking like a back nine order was optimistic.

My Prediction: Back nine, no season 2.

Terra Nova

How It’s Doing: Will be getting the Glee treatment: a pilot this spring, then a full launch in Fall 2011. Not really a 2010/2011 show any more.

My Prediction: No season 2.

NBC (National Broadcasting Company)

The Cape

How It’s Doing: Started promisingly, but has been falling since its premiere. Looking like a loser by end of season.

My Prediction: Probably one season and out.

Chase

How It’s Doing: The show got a back nine order only because NBC is collapsing before our eyes. I was right on the money with this one, it seems.

My Prediction: Back nine, yes; second season, no.

The Event

How It’s Doing: A back nine has been ordered, but its ratings have yet to stabilise in a strong position. I expect we’ll be seeing a cancellation notice in May.

My Prediction: No season 2.

Friends With Benefits

How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.

My Prediction: If it makes it to air, 5 episodes.

Harry’s Law

How It’s Doing: A solid premiere that looks good for a second season, if not a decent multiseason run.

My Prediction: 3-4 seasons.

Law and Order: Los Angeles

How It’s Doing: Opened solidly, with shaky ratings. Rating still shaky, so we’ll have to see if the cast reshuffle will rejuvenate things.

My Prediction: The show will, at worst, limp through 2-3 seasons, unless its ratings are a complete trainwreck.

Love Bites

How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.

My Prediction: No season 2, sadly.

Outlaw

How It’s Doing: No back nine, dead. Right on the money.

My Prediction: No back nine.

Outsourced

How It’s Doing: Got its back nine, and was doing well enough until it was rescheduled to close the night – and has now dropped into the cancel range.

My Prediction: Will see season 2. After that, I have no idea.

The Paul Reiser Show

How It’s Doing: Unscheduled.

My Prediction: 1 season, if it surfaces on air at all.

Perfect Couples

How It’s Doing: Not great. Might be kept around to fill its gap in the NBC Thursday nights, or might switch places with Outsourced so the network can save that show. We’ll see.

My Prediction: 4 episodes max.

Undercovers

How It’s Doing: Though the ratings are pretty disappointing, they are for NBC across the board too. I expect I was wrong and we won’t see season 2, but the show did receive an order for 4 more scripts (though, not episodes).

My Prediction: Multiple seasons.

So, how am I doing? I was pretty good with predicting opening ratings, but my choices lacked certain dimensions. I knew No Ordinary Family would grab a good premiere audience, but didn’t foresee the downfall that came later; meanwhile, I underestimated the charm of Better With You, so while it premiered with numbers I wasn’t surprised by, its early stabilisation did surprise me. And sometimes it was a network thing: The Defenders as an audience I’m not surprised by, but its survival chances are less than anticipated because CBS can, and does, cull its weaker shows more often than others.

Any thoughts, folks?

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